Ellie Craven, Senior Researcher at Onward, commented: “The Conservatives need to create dividing lines between themselves and both the Government and Reform. Conservative target voters want the Conservatives to work with the Government on the overall aim of tackling climate change, but they want the party to challenge the Government on certain issues: the dividing line should not be on the principle of tackling climate change, but on the process.
The Party has an opportunity to be the sensible voice on climate and the environment that sits between the Government’s too much too soon method, and Reform’s more sceptical approach. The Conservative approach can be one that appeals to their base and target voters who, as evidenced in the report, care about climate change but worry about the personal costs of action. The Conservatives should champion a pragmatic, pro-market strategy for tackling climate that is cognisant of costs to the consumer.”
In 2024, the Conservatives lost 23% and 7% of their 2019 vote share to Reform and the Liberal Democrats respectively, and 26% of the 2019 coalition did not vote. To begin to recover from the election, the Conservative party needs to win back all of these voter groups. The swing away to Reform has led some commentators to argue that the way to win these votes back is to roll back support for climate policy. But Onward argues that this would be a mistake for two reasons.
Firstly, climate change is not an electorally motivating issue for Reform voters; they care much more about immigration. More in Common polling found that only 4% of this segment voted for Reform because of their policies on the environment, whereas 72% voted the way they did because of the party’s policies on immigration.
Secondly and conversely, climate change is an important and influencing factor for other key voter groups that the Conservatives need to retain or win back. These are: core Conservatives; former Conservatives who did not vote in 2024; and Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers. Three-quarters of Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers and two-thirds of Conservative voters and target voters think it is important to have a Government that makes tackling climate change a priority.
Political Climate argues that rowing back on climate ambitions will not only alienate Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers and other Conservatives. It will also fail to win back Reform switchers as they place far more electoral importance on immigration.
But Conservative voters and target voters are concerned about the cost of tackling climate change: only 5% and 6% of Conservative voters and target voters, respectively, would prefer the Government increase individual taxes to fund climate policy. Two-thirds of Conservative voters would either not accept any increase in their taxes or would accept £1-£10 increase annually. And nearly 64% of Conservative target voters would either accept no increase in their taxes or £1-£10 annually.
Voters from all parties want the Conservatives in Opposition to work collaboratively with the Government to maintain progress on tackling climate change. This is also true of Conservative voters and target voters: over 50% of these segments believe the Conservatives should either collaborate with the Government to maintain progress or push it to go faster.
At the same time, the Conservatives need to create dividing lines between themselves and the Government and Reform. Conservative voters and target voters believe, for example, that Labour’s climate policies will be funded by increased taxes or irresponsible borrowing. This sentiment is not just prevalent amongst Conservatives, 43% of all voters think this too.
The Party has an opportunity to become the sensible voice on climate and the environment that sits between the Government’s too fast too soon approach, and Reform’s climate sceptic approach. A pragmatic, pro-market approach that is cognisant of costs can appeal to Conservative voters and target voters who care about climate change but worry about the personal costs of action.
310
310