FUTURE POLITICS State of the Union

What drives support for independence?

We explore the factors most likely to affect support for independence and the benefits people would miss if Scotland did vote to leave.

• 35% of Scottish voters, and 58% of Yes voters, say that if the SNP wins a majority and the UK Government refuses a referendum outright they would be more likely to vote Yes, compared to 19% and 8% respectively who say they would be less likely. The implication is that support for independence may harden considerably if the UK Government decides to “just say no”.
• But if the SNP wins a majority and holds a referendum without the agreement of the UK Government, roughly the same number (33%) and 53% of No voters, say they would be less likely to vote Yes, versus 24% and 11% who say it would increase their likelihood to vote Yes. This suggests that the SNP may be overreaching by putting a second referendum on the ballot paper and committing to an immediate and unilateral referendum.
• Yes voters say that if Nicola Sturgeon resigned they would be less likely to vote for independence. 28% of Yes voters say they would be less likely to vote Yes in this scenario, versus 23% who say it would make them more likely. It appears that support for independence is at least partially stored in the political personality of the First Minister.
• When asked what benefits or features of the Union they would miss if Scotland did vote for independence, 57% of Scottish voters said they would miss “funding for public services like the NHS”, 40% said they would miss “the ability to travel and work freely around the United Kingdom” and 38% said they would miss a “shared British identity”, including 47%, 27% and 19% of Yes voters respectively.

The fragile State of the Union

A large share of Scottish voters believe that the focus on constitutional issues is distracting from the other priorities of the Scottish people:

• When ranked, Scottish voters say their top four priorities are Health and Social Care; Jobs and Employment; Managing the Covid Crisis; and Education. Reforming the UK Constitution is ranked 12th out of 20 issues.
• Three fifths (61%) of Scottish voters agree that “the focus on constitutional issues in recent years has distracted politicians from working more on public services like health, education and the police”, compared to just 19% who disagree.
• 58% of Scottish voters agree that “Scotland’s schools, which used to be world-leading, have fallen behind relative to comparable countries”, compared to 23% who disagree.
• This does not however stop Scottish voters from saying that most issues would be better handled if Scotland were independent compared to remaining in the UK. The only issues that Scots think would be better handled by remaining in the UK are foreign affairs and defence, reforming the UK constitution and sourcing vaccine supplies.
• Scottish voters are more likely to say the UK Government has handled rolling out the vaccine well (38%) than the Scottish Government (34%), and believe the UK Government has done well overall on providing economic support, clear information to the public, and managing the health and care system, suggesting the Union may be benefitting from a vaccine bounce.

Read more of our work on politics and the Union here.